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Decision Intelligence

Move past convincing answers,
to decisions you can verify.

Trace structures the decision process, from defining criteria and comparing hypotheses to evaluating evidence and reaching a conclusion. Every conclusion stays linked to the evidence and assumptions behind it.

Investment decisionExample

Should we lead Company B’s Series B?

IR deck.pdfFinancial model.xlsxExpert interviewIC email thread
ConfirmedARR ₩4.2B · 3.1× YoYIR deck p.12
CounterTop 3 customers = 54% of revenueDiligence notes
UnverifiedCompetitor price cut plannedExpert interview
Trace’s first conclusionLead, with conditions

Linked to 3 pieces of evidence · 2 assumptions

01 Why Trace

When a decision affects your money, people, or direction,
a convincing answer is only the beginning.

Question 1

What evidence supports this recommendation?

Open the exact sources and sentences behind every conclusion.

Question 2

Which assumptions does it depend on?

The assumptions holding up a conclusion are pulled out and shown on their own.

Question 3

If those assumptions change, should the decision change too?

Change an assumption and compare how the conclusion moves, right where you are.

02 How it works

We turn the thinking behind a decision
into a four-step structure.

STEP 1

Define what success looks like

Set the criteria you will judge by and how much each one matters.

STEP 2

Frame your options as hypotheses

Put comparable options side by side instead of settling for one answer.

STEP 3

Weigh evidence and counter-evidence

Facts from your sources are sorted into confirmed, counter-evidence, and unverified.

STEP 4

Reach a conclusion tied to its reasons

Each conclusion is linked to the evidence and assumptions it rests on.

Set the criteria you will judge by and how much each one matters.

Company B · Series B leadExample

Criteria

Growth35
Market size25
Customer concentration20
Valuation20
03 Assumptions

When assumptions change,
see exactly how the conclusion changes.

New information doesn’t mean rebuilding the analysis. Update the assumption that changed, and the conclusion and its reasoning are recalculated. Try it.

Assumptions

The largest customer renews next yearFrom diligence notes · Confirmed

No competitor price cut within a yearOne expert interview · Unverified

Trace’s conclusion
Lead, with conditions

Growth clears the bar, but customer concentration has to be managed through deal terms.

A Lead67
B Lead w/ conditions68
C Pass35
Flip an assumption or move the weight.
04 Final call

AI handles the thinking,
people make the final choice.

WHAT TRACE DOES

Organizes criteria, hypotheses, and evidence into a first conclusion

It reads your sources, separates what is confirmed from what is still unknown, and lays it out for comparison.

WHAT YOU DO

Examine, challenge, and adopt

Remove weak evidence, revise assumptions and weights, then make the final call yourself.

✓ Approved by IC
AFTER THE DECISION

Adopted criteria inform the next decision

Company B Series B · Lead, with conditionsCriterion adopted · SaaS deals: customer concentration cap 30%Next decision · Referenced in Company C Series A review
05 Use cases

Any decision that needs evidence
can be worked through the same way.

Investment review

Should we lead Company B’s Series B?IR deck · Financial model · Diligence notes

Market entry

Enter Japan next half, or grow the home market first?Market research · Sales pipeline · Runway

Strategic priorities

Launch a new product, or deepen the existing one?Customer interviews · Revenue data · Roadmap
06 Security

Use AI with confidence,
grounded in evidence you can verify.

Connect only what you need

Choose which mail, files, and documents a decision can use.

Every fact has a source

Open any sentence behind a conclusion at its exact place in the original.

You control connections and data

Disconnect and delete stored data at any time.

Start your next decision
with the evidence in view.

Start a decision
© XimplifAI · Trace